June Madness

The diagram ineptly suggests that the winners of separate smaller contests will face each other until one overall winner is determined.  But it accomplishes its purpose of showing the entire group from which the ultimate nominee will emerge – there’s even a space for a “dark horse.”

One other problem with the chart is that the contenders aren’t looking to win the same prize.  Only half of the candidates are serious presidential contenders.  There’s no way that Cain, Pawlenty, Bachmann, Huntsman or Santorum will get the nomination, but it will be a significant career boost if they get the nod for vice president.

Republicans impose message control on each other so aggressively that they are forced to compete on the basis of having appealing personalities.  That’s certainly an aspect of governing that’s important to a president but not as critical as Republican constraints are making it.  Ronald Reagan was good-looking and likeable; but the jury is still out on his effectiveness as president.  The jury, however, is not still out on the good-looking and likeable George Bush, who was at one time the candidate most Americans would like to have a beer with.  But he was a disaster as president and nobody will seek his endorsement.  The more he stays away, the better they’ll all like it.

The diagram also underestimates the serious chances of presidential contenders Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin.  They’re both in it to win it, unlike the quixotic Ron Paul, who has the least chance of any candidate of getting any nomination at all.

The insider/outsider dichotomy is a bit ridiculous. The candidates who aren’t in public office at this moment – Gingrich and Palin – can hardly be said to be outsiders.

All of them have professed to hate women and gays, though on that count Ron Paul is a little better. And really that’s all there is to it.

Think about it: Ron freakin’ Paul is the most moderate.